City officials have expressed hope that the city can realize a downtrend in Covid-19 cases sooner than expected following the Delta variant-driven surge slowdown in Metro Manila and other erstwhile critical areas.
Mayor Benjamin Magalong and City Health Services Office heads Rowena Galpo and Celia Flor Brillantes said the city needs to have a sustained decrease in cases in the coming days to achieve this goal.
The mayor on Oct. 4 said although the city’s case reproduction number or R naught, which helps predict the number of cases generated from exposure to a patient, had started to go down from 1.4 (the critical level threshold) to less than one starting Sept. 22, it needs further validation as data inputs were still being completed due to delays.
If said R naught level holds after validation and the city sustains this trend for 14 days, then a downtrend is possible towards the end of the second week of October, the mayor surmised.
Galpo and Brillantes agreed there were indications of a slow decrease in cases in the past days but this is not enough to declare a downturn.
“We need to see a sustained reduction of cases so it’s still too early to say,” Brillantes said in press briefing on Oct. 6.
Galpo, during the management committee meeting Oct. 5, said they may come up with a clearer picture after this week as they are still completing the data to be analyzed.
Galpo said as of Oct. 4, the city’s two-week growth rate (TWGR) had been on the negative for the past two reporting dates which is a good indicator.
The average daily attack rate (ADAR) had also slightly lowered at 47.4 per 100,000 population.
The mayor said the seven-day moving average on Covid-19 deaths from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1 also showed the daily number of deaths had gone down from eight in the previous week to six.
The mayor assured the city will continue to employ measures to control the contagion and achieve a downturn as soon as possible.
He encouraged residents to continue complying with health and safety protocols and quarantine restrictions and to avail of the vaccines when their turns come.
The city health officers also appealed to residents to if possible stay at home to avoid exposure and to seek consult and observe quarantine and preventive measures if experiencing symptoms. – Aileen P. Refuerzo
