January 29, 2023

Experts and the reign of error

Experts tell us how to fix our cars, build our homes, manage our health, and what opinions to hold.
We consult with experts when we have issues that we cannot handle well. There are so many experts in the world. Should we listen to all of them? Does having expertise mean making better decisions and predictions than regular people?
In the ‘70s, climate experts claimed there would be another ice age come 2000. In 2008, climate genius Al Gore has predicted the Arctic will be ice-free by 2013. It is 2021.We are not in an ice age nor has the arctic melted away. If these climate experts were correct, modern civilization should have ended more than 10 times already.
Some health experts recommend that one must avoid eating anything with cholesterol because, according to them, cholesterol is the most common cause of heart attacks. This logic is not up to date. In fact, dietary cholesterol plays a small role in cardiovascular health.
Experts from the Imperial College of London have predicted a huge death toll without lockdowns based on complex mathematical data models. However, countries that did not implement lockdowns only suffered less than 1/10th of the predicted deaths.
What caused this massive discrepancy between the modeled data and the real-world data? Well, experts can make data models reflect anything they want if they base it on a lot of assumptions. Our government is saying” “Our quarantine measure may have prevented 100,000 cases” is totally different from them claiming “Our quarantine measure has prevented 100,000 cases.” Remember, predictions by experts are mostly wrong.
There is no such thing as “settled science.” By its very nature and definition, science (of various areas) is constantly updating and evolving.
Most of the time, when we hear expert opinion in the news, we are limited to the experts chosen by the mainstream media.
For example, we often heard from health experts recommending barriers for motorcycles; but how often did we hear the side of the motorcycle-riding experts?
In this age of fear and online censorship, it will be hard for everyone to determine what is scientifically true or not. Sure, experts should still be consulted; but with their current “reign of error,” we should do our own due diligence to research and think critically. — HONORARY PROF. CHATNOIR, Baguio City

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